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Sandwiched Between Powers

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Thailand has been sandwiched between powerful rivals more than once. The new rivalry between China and the United States is once again challenging the kingdom's foreign policy.

In the late 19th Century, France and Great Britain had Siam surrounded from Burma (Myanmar) to the West and French Indochina to the West (Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam). To the south was British Malaya (Malaysia).

An eleven-week war with France in 1893 and considerable diplomatic efforts at playing Britain and France off each other resulted in Siam maintaining its sovereignty. At the same time, Siam also lost considerable amount of territory. But the main result of this was that Siam managed to remain the only Southeast Asian country that was never colonized.

During World War II, Thailand struck a deal with the Japanese to allow occupation in exchange for control over its internal affairs and military as well as a Japanese promise to help regain territories it had lost before.

Japan, however, increasingly started treating Thailand as a conquered country. At the same time, the Free Thai movement secretly continued collaboration with Britain and the US.

Thailand eventually swung towards the “winners” and was not punished by the victorious allied forces. It was also rewarded with US-sponsored infrastructure, military protection, and direct foreign investment. This started the modernization process of Thailand and its economy.

The clear beneficiary of this was United States that received territorial access and other concessions for decades, including considerable assistance during the “Vietnam War,” or “American War” as it is called in Indochina.

Current Challenge Comes from China

The latest challenge Thailand is facing comes from China that has grown exponentially in just a few decades. Thailand is already becoming a major trading partner in multiple sectors, and an increasingly important strategic partner to China. The Americans have clearly noticed this as well.

Thailand will continue to respect both the US and China while striving to maintain national interests and diplomatic flexibility. Possible pressure from either of these superpowers may eventually turn to Thailand’s advantage if it manages to treat both fairly and equally.

The US has made some mistakes when dealing with Thailand and ASEAN in general. The US just announced a virtual “Summit for Democracy” (9-10 December 2021), hosted by President Joe Biden. Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, and Singapore are not among the 110 countries that have been invited. But for some reason other ASEAN members like Malaysia, Philippines, and Indonesia are still allowed to attend.

The selection process for this summit promoting democracy and transparency was clearly decided in an undemocratic and opaque manner. But at the same time, the White House is sending teams of visiting diplomats to the region to bolster cooperation.

The battle between superpowers is just heating up in Southeast Asia. And Thailand seems to once again be forced to walk a difficult tightrope.

The full article can be found HERE.

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