Indonesia’s dream of becoming a high-income economy by 2045 is bleak, the World Bank says.
Achieving that target in time, Indonesia would require annual gross domestic product growth of 6-7% over the next 20 years.
“For middle-income countries to have high income in decades rather than centuries, it would need a miracle,” World Bank Group chief economist Indermit Gill explains.
Since the 1970s, per-capita income in many middle-income countries has stagnated at a fraction of the United States level, according to the World Bank’s World Development Report 2024 titled Middle Income Trap.
The report found “that as countries grow wealthier, they usually hit a ‘trap’ at about 10% of annual US GDP per person – the equivalent of US$8,000 today.”
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