Climate Change in Finland

Nearly all of Finland is situated in the boreal coniferous forest zone, and 72% of the total land area is classified as forest land, while only some 9% is farmed. Finland has more than 34,300 km² of inland water systems, which represents approximately 10% of its total area. There are some 190,000 lakes and 180,000 islands. 

The climate of Finland displays features of both maritime and continental climates, depending on the direction of airflow. Risk and vulnerability assessments carried out in national research projects and programmes have estimated the water sector to be the most affected by climate change impacts (Seventh National Communication, 2017). 

Finland submitted its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) as an EU Member State in 2015. In future, the average temperature in Finland will probably rise more and faster than the global average. In addition to warming, precipitation is estimated to increase. The changes will affect winters more than summers. If the current trend continues, the following changes are expected to occur in Finland’s climate:

Temperature Will Rise

• Winter temperatures in particular will rise.
• Warming will be fastest in Northern Finland.
• Very low temperatures seem to become rarer.
• Heat wave periods will probably become more common and last longer.
• The highest temperatures will probably rise.
• The growing season will become longer and warmer.

Precipitation Will Increase

• Particularly in the winter half of the year, precipitation will increase and it will more often fall down as rain rather than as snow.
• Heavy rain events are assumed to become more intense, and the change than average rainfall.
• The longest dry periods in winter and spring will become somewhat shorter.

Storm Winds Will Change

• Average wind conditions are not expected to change much.

Storm winds are expected to increase over Finnish sea areas and the coastline. According to RCP4.5 (stabilization) scenario storm winds will increase most probably near the southern and western coastline since storm winds are projected to increase over Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea and Sea of Bothnia. According RCP8.5 scenario storm winds may increase over all Finnish sea areas and also southern and central part of the country reaching southern Lapland.

Climate change projection gain more support from the most recent research about past storms in Europe. The catastrophic storms when investigated over the period of 1951–2010 have changed remarkably since 1990 which represents a change point in the storm series. Nearly all of the most catastrophic storms have occurred after year 1990 in an area that covers Western, Central and Northern Europe.

Snow Cover and Soil Frost Will Reduce

• The snow cover period will become shorter.
• The water equivalent of snow and snow depth will decrease.
• The amount of soil frost will reduce.
• During mild and rainy winters, the ground will often be wet and its carrying capacity reduced.

Cloud Cover Will Increase and Sunshine Will Decrease

• Winters will become cloudier and there will be less sunshine.
• In summer cloud cover is likely to remain largely unchanged or sunshine to become slightly more common.

Sea Level Will Rise and the Ice Cover Will Reduce

• Water level in the Gulf of Finland may begin to rise and in the Gulf of Bothnia the sea will recede slower than before.
• Winter ice cover in the Baltic Sea will reduce and become thinner.

Sources: ilmasto-opas.fi/en, climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org