The Finnish economy is predicted to see a gradual recovery in 2025-2026. GDP growth is forecasted at around 0.5% in 2025, strengthening to 1.5% in 2026 (Bank of Finland, June 2025).
PPP-based GDP per capita is also expected to rise, indicating improving living standards (Trading Economics, World Bank data).
The export-import balance, or net exports, is projected to contribute positively to GDP growth in 2025, estimated at 0.5%, but may slightly turn negative in 2026 (-0.4%) (Bank of Finland, June 2025).
The reasons for this cautious recovery include persistent global trade tensions and elevated economic uncertainty, which weigh on export growth and business confidence.
While lower interest rates are expected to stimulate investment and private consumption, the recovery will be slow due to weak consumer confidence and a subdued labor market. Public finances are also expected to remain in deficit.
Sources: Bank of Finland (June 2025), Trading Economics (World Bank data).